">TGDaily's Aharon Etengoff reports that Intel CEO Paul Otellini is insisting Apple won't be ditching x86 processors for RISC-based chips ARM silicon in its MacBook lineup "any time soon." "Apple's growth in Macs has quadrupled since they shifted to Intel. Their market share has quadrupled since they shifted [from PowerPC] to Intel," Etengoff cites Otellini saying earlier this week during a company conference, adding "And that value proposition has served them very well. [As such], I don't see their Mac line moving in any different direction any time soon."
Neither do I, despite a burst of rumor buzz recently suggesting Apple might be fixing on switching its MacBook families from Intel processors to ARM-based chips of its own design (like the A4 and A5 CPUs used in current iPhones and iPads), Along with those cited by Mr. Ottelini, I have several good technical and business reasons for believe this, including diminished compatibility with the dominant Windows ecosystem.
This week, Real World Tech's David Kanter posted an eloquent, detailed, and thoroughgoing analysis of the rumor launched last week by the SemiAccurate (sic) site claiming Apple will abandon x86 and migrate all their notebooks (MacBook Air and Pro) to ARM silicon over the next two years. Kantner explains why this doesn't hold water, observing that it would cause a massive disruption in the PC ecosystem, and calling it an exceptionally unlikely scenario.
Kanter examines reasons (and there are some, to be fair) Apple might have for switching to ARM CPUs in their notebooks, and deconstructs them one by one. For example, there would be enhanced potential for convergence of the iOS and OS X platforms toward an eventual merger. Another perceived (at least by Apple) benefit would be tighter control over hardware—an abiding Apple obsession—and potentially greater integration of hardware and software engineering, also consistent with Apple tradition. Apple would find it much easier to steer the direction of ARM to suit its needs than is possible with Intel, and as a bonus save money by designing and manufacturing their own ARM chip.
Kanter also acknowledges that Apple has switched CPU platforms twice before and managed it reasonably elegantly both times, and conceivably could pull it off again, but allows that studying the history of Apple's hardware choices and their approach to switching platforms actually this time reinforces the unlikelihood of an x86 to ARM migration, noting that from a technical perspective, the performance and compatibility barriers are huge.
However, Kanter contends the most formidable obstacle to such a switch is would-be performance, noting that the MacBook Pro especially is intended for performance-hungry professional applications, and ARM has nothing anywhere near as powerful and refined as Intel's quad-core Core "i" Nehalem chips. There are no ARM microarchitectures even on the horizon that can compare to Intel's Sandy Bridge or AMD's Bulldozer, with current ARM designs being at roughly the same performance level as x86 was in 2000. He contends that that migrating to ARM would not just require matching, but exceeding x86 in performance. Then there's Intel and Apple's recent joint announcement of the Thunderbolt I/O interface, with Apple likely intending to consolidate and replace multiple I/O interfaces (e.g. USB, Firewire, DisplayPort) with a single Thunderbolt port, and Intel having little motivation to license the patents to ARM.
He also explores a number of business reasons why Apple switching its laptops to ARM makes no sense. Kanter summarizes that the strongest argument for Apple sticking with x86 is that it meets their needs quite well, and maintains that while it's an intriguing thought experiment, Apple will not be switching from x86 to ARM for notebooks in next few years. Kanter ventures that it would not even be possible, but suggests a plausible scenario would be for Apple to develop some sort of hybrid system to enhance areas like boot/wakeup performance and facilitate more iOS/OS X integration. And 5 to 10 years from now, who knows?
Personally, I think the notion of Apple dumping Intel for ARM in its MacBook families of laptops is absurdly fanciful, to put it mildly. However, I wouldn't rule out Apple's making an ARM-based clamshell laptop running the iOS to compliment its lines of mobile handheld i-devices.
No comments:
Post a Comment